A Psychologist Explains Why Divorce Rates Could Start Rising Soon

Could the looming threat of an economic recession put marriages at risk? Here's what research suggests.

By Mark Travers, Ph.D. | May 02, 2025

Historically, America's most significant spikes in divorce didn't happen in times of crisis. They happened in the aftermath.

Take the 1973–75 oil crisis. Gross Domestic Product dropped by over 3%, unemployment soared and couples struggled to make ends meet. But it wasn't until the economy started to recover that divorce rates spiked.

A similar trend followed the 2007–2009 financial crash. Despite record-high unemployment and foreclosures, divorce rates dipped during the downturn — only to climb once stability returned.

A 2013 study published in Applied Economics Letters makes the pattern clear: divorces tend to be delayed during recessions, then accelerate during expansions.

Divorce is expensive. And emotionally, many couples go into survival mode when finances collapse; they place more importance on logistics than long-term relationship health. Only when things stabilize do they begin to process just how far gone their marriage is.

Today, indicators are already flashing signs of strain. With economists once again warning us of a 60% likelihood of a US — if not global — recession, a surge in divorces may be brewing in the background.

Here's why the real unraveling often comes after the recession, not during it.

1. Divorce Is Often Deferred, Not Prevented

When the economy plunges, so does the financial feasibility of divorce. Legal fees, real estate transactions and the costs of establishing two separate households are often out of reach. This is especially the case when families are already stretched thin. As a result, strained couples — who may well desire separation — stay together because they have no other choice.

The 2013 Applied Economics Letters study highlights this exact trend during the Great Recession. Researchers found that divorce rates actually declined during the downturn itself — but spiked once the economy started to recover.

This is in no way to say that relationships improved with hardship. As the researchers suggest, it was more likely a sign that financial constraint had simply postponed the inevitable. Once stability returned and people felt safer about their financial futures, long-held intentions to separate only then became actionable.

Worse, recessions likely widened the existing cracks in marriage. Imagine, for instance, an already emotionally detached couple — sleeping in separate rooms, or perhaps having already even silently considered splitting up. Then, the economy crashes. Jobs are lost. Rent spikes. Savings vanish. Suddenly, there's no way either of them can afford the second apartment they were thinking of, nor could take unpaid time off to meet with lawyers.

So, they stay. They cohabitate in silence. They survive off of shared groceries, shared Wi-Fi and shared resentment — nothing more, but maybe less.

This emotional purgatory can last months, or perhaps even years. But the moment one of them lands a new job or stumbles into a modest inheritance, the logjam breaks. The emotional decision was already made long in advance; now it's finally financially possible.

That's why researchers caution against interpreting a recession-era dip in divorce filings as a sign of improved marital health. It's often just a pause, which, more often than not, ends the minute people can afford to leave.

2. Financial Strain Reveals — And Amplifies — Existing Fault Lines

Few divorces happen in a vacuum; most are years in the making. In this sense, financial stress often functions less as a cause than an accelerant.

Economic hardship — whether couples notice it or not — will peel back the superficial layers of a relationship. When there's no money for date nights, no buffer for impulse purchases and no tolerance for risky decisions, couples are forced to confront their differences face-first. Leave these differences unaddressed, and they'll soon start to feel insurmountable.

According to 2013 research from the Journal of Financial Therapy, couples under financial stress experience steeper declines in relationship satisfaction when they lack effective communication habits around money. In particular, partners who avoided regular conversations about budgeting and expenses were significantly more likely to report feeling isolated and misunderstood.

Say two spouses are dealing with a sudden job loss. One might become hyper-vigilant: tracking every cent in a color-coded spreadsheet, clipping coupons, fretting over electricity usage. The other starts ordering takeout multiple times a week, saying, "We're miserable enough without starving ourselves too."

They're both coping — but in totally opposing ways. What may start as mere irritation slowly snowballs into judgment. One constantly thinks, "You're irresponsible." The other thinks, "You're controlling." Over time, these criticisms congeal into narratives. In turn, these narratives may eventually become justifications for leaving.

Recessions likely won't introduce brand-new issues. It's more probable that they strip away the distractions and routines that once concealed them; the illusion of compatibility simply dissolves under pressure. Without an affordable façade, the poor structural integrity of the marriage's foundation becomes an eyesore.

3. Emotional Numbness Sets In Before Separation

The most dangerous phase of marital decline is silence. Not heated arguments or screaming matches — which still involve a degree of communication — but rather consuming, destructive nothingness.

Psychologists refer to this as "emotional disengagement." As 2013 research from the Journal of Family Psychology describes, it's a gradual, quiet detachment that often precedes the end of a relationship.

Naturally, financial stress is one of the fastest routes there. When couples are in survival mode, they're forced to reserve their limited energy for basic needs — work, food, bills — which leaves very little left over for romance.

Data in marital psychology, including longitudinal research from the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, indicate that stress linked to job loss or financial instability is strongly associated with reduced warmth between partners.

As money dwindles, affection follows suit. From there on, communication becomes transactional and eye contact fades. No full-blown fights, just small withdrawals: tiny, daily acts of turning away.

Picture a year in which neither partner is emotionally available. One works overtime out of fear of layoffs. The other lies awake at night refreshing bank balances and staring at an empty pantry. Too caught up in their own stress, they forget to check in with each other.

Fewer hugs, fewer shared meals, fewer inside jokes. Everything feels heavier, but they refrain from saying anything out loud — postponing the acknowledgement of the dismal reality. This absence of emotional presence serves as its own form of rejection.

By the time the economic storm clears, the marriage may still exist in name. But emotionally, it could already be over. When the moment comes to decide whether to rebuild or to walk away, many realize they've already spent too many months — or years — quietly letting go.

Has economic instability left your marriage feeling unstable too? Take this science-backed test to learn more: Marital Satisfaction Scale

A similar version of this article can also be found on Forbes.com, here.